Could Gaga’s A Star is Born take oscar gold?

The Bradley directed musical, A Star is Born, has real chances for Oscar glory, here’s why.

So, as 2018 slinks to a finish, I can’t shake the feeling in my gut. The Bradley Cooper directed version of A Star is Born is going to win best picture. Lady Gaga is going to be nominated for Oscar gold, and she may very well take home a best actress trophy. I have no idea who will preside over the ceremony, but I feel A Star is Born is going to dominate Oscar night in my bones.

Don’t believe me? Read further and I’ll explain.

Reason One: It’s a critically acclaimed film

It’s no secret that critics liked A Star is Born a lot. 90% of critics listed on Rotten Tomatoes gave it positive reviews. Even more impressively, is that the average score of those critics was 8.1 out of ten. It has been nominated for nine awards at the Critics choice awards and chosen as a one of the top ten films of 2018 by the American Film Institute.

Movies that win best picture tend to be movies that critics like this much. Many of the things I just said about A Star is Born were also true of Argo and The Shape of Water, both of which went on to win best picture.

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Reason Two: The Academy Loves Movies Directed By Actors, for Actors

The Academy Awards has a long history of rewarding films that were directed by actors. Ordinary People won over Raging Bull, partly because it was directed by Robert Redford. Argo won over Lincoln partly because it was directed by Ben Affleck. Todd Haynes wasn’t a famous actor, but the fact that he was an actor probably helped Spotlight win in 2015.

Why does the Academy love actors who direct? Because actors and actresses are the biggest voting bloc in the academy. They know these people. They’ve worked with them, and maybe they are friends. So it makes sense that actos will tend to support their peers, proving that they can do a new job well.

Another reason that actors will support actor/directors is the material actor/directors choose. They don’t tend to do 250 million dollar blockbusters. They usually chose to do dramas or comedies that are centered around giving performers the opportunity to showcase their skills. Think of Braveheart or Unforgiven. Both are dramas centered around big star turns, while also giving juicy supporting performances to the like of Morgan Freeman or Patrick McGoohan.

A Star is Born is directed by Bradley Cooper, and is centered around the interplay between him, Lady Gaga. Critics who liked the film agreed that their personal chemistry is one of the films highlights. It also apparently allows old pros like Sam Elliot the chance to be wise and earthy. The Academy is willing to eat this stuff up for both breakfast and lunch.

Reason Three: It has resonated with the Zeitgeist

A Star is Born also has another honour that may be even more precious than being a critical darling. It’s a character based-drama that a lot of people saw, and that has become part of the popular consciousness in a way that Oscar winners have not been part of for a long time.

According to Boxofficemojo, A Star is Born has made more than 388 million dollars. Yes, it’s true that it never had a weekend where it was number one. However, it has been consistently making money during the fall. It’s made more money than Ralph Breaks the Internet and other movies meant for a broad audience.

Even further, I’d argue that A Star is Born has had the largest cultural footprint of any adult leaning movie for a long time.

What do I base this assumption on? On the fact that the video for Shallow has racked up 172 million views since October. Even more tellingly, I have new co-workers in their mid 20’s who I imagine don’t normally keep track of Oscar pictures have not only heard of A Star is Born, but want to see it.

The last time a character based drama made this much money, it was called La La Land, and it almost won best picture. What stopped it? The fact that Moonlight was also an amazing movie, and that there was enough critical buzz and advocacy for Moonlight to triumph.

The Academy has had an issue for the last few years. The Oscars usually give best picture to a character based drama. At the same time, they want to award it to a popular movie so that people keep tuning into the broadcast, and they can sell ad time at a premium.

A Star is Born is the first time in a long time that these Venn diagrams intersect, and I believe they’ll chose it.

Reason Four: A Lack of Other Contenders

None of the English language prestige films this year have inspired Moonlight levels of universal passion from both critics and industry people. The only movies with enthusiasm that could derail A Star is Born are foreign language films. I don’t believe the American film dominated Academy are ever going to do that. I certainly don’t think its going to happen in 2019.

I haven’t even seen the movie, or any of the other Oscar bait. I do know the video for Shallow was really good, and that I’m looking forward to seeing it when I get the chance. I just have this hunch A Star is Born is going to win Best picture, and that they might give Gaga best actress too.

So what about you Fansiders? Do you think A Star will win? Should it win? Sound off in the comments below.