Temptation Island season 5: Which couples will make it to the end? (Weekly updates)

TEMPTATION ISLAND -- “Message in a Box” Episode 507 -- Pictured in this screengrab: (l-r) Sebastian Baraza, Kaitlin Tufts, Kristian Barbarich, Leonila "Paris" Pedro, Marisela Figueroa, Tahjjic Smith -- (Photo by: USA Network)
TEMPTATION ISLAND -- “Message in a Box” Episode 507 -- Pictured in this screengrab: (l-r) Sebastian Baraza, Kaitlin Tufts, Kristian Barbarich, Leonila "Paris" Pedro, Marisela Figueroa, Tahjjic Smith -- (Photo by: USA Network) /

Temptation Island is back with a spicy hot new season! The first episode introduces the couples who will be putting their loyalty and relationship to the test. And if you’re a longtime fan of the reality dating show, you are well aware that not all couples will be leaving together when the season is over. Which Temptation Island season 5 couples do you believe will make it in the end?

Check back after each episode airs!

At the end of every episode, we’ll be updating this post with the odds each couple has of leaving the island the same way they came in, hand-in-hand. Needless to say, there will be spoilers ahead if you are not caught up on the drama. Be sure to watch new episodes Wednesday nights at 9 p.m. ET on the USA network. Or, if you miss it, catch the episode the next day on Peacock.

Now, assuming you’re all caught up, let’s dive right in and break down the odds each couple has of staying together.

Will Kaitlin and Hall break up on Temptation Island?

  • Verdict: Kaitlin and Hall break up 

Season 5 finale (Aug. 23) update: Kaitlin and Hall are never getting back together. Like ever. Hall left the island with Makayla and Kaitlin by herself (her choice).

Comments from this season:

Episode 10: Hall and Kaitlin don’t reunite at the bonfire until next week, but it’s not difficult to predict the outcome. Hall has forgotten all about Kaitlin. Boy, that was quick and easy for him, wasn’t it. But it’s okay, we love this for Kaitlin!

Episode 9: Hall and Kaitlin are done for good. Even though Hall and Makayla are not currently together (according to my stalking), there’s no way Kaitlin will take Hall back after this one.

Episode 8: Hall broke up with Kaitlin in episode 8, but from the digging we did on Makayla and Hall’s social media, I really don’t think they ended up together. Did Makayla take him back? Honestly, I hope not! But still, I’m giving them 20% chance.

Episode 7: Yes, I am being bold and giving Kaitlin and Hall a 50/50 chance of getting back together. I know the last moments of the latest episode tease at a break up…but is it really happening? Or is production trying to fool us here? We believe in you, Kaitlin and Hall!

Episode 6: First up, we’ve got engaged couple Kaitlin Tufts and Hall Toledano. That’s right, these two are engaged! There’s a lot at stake here. Kaitlin is the one who is hesitant to walk the aisle, but from what we see in the first episode, Hall isn’t worried about pushing his limits.

Episodes 1-5: After the season 5 premiere episode, I gave Kaitlin and Hall a 35% chance of staying together. It would be lower, but they’ve been dating for for eight years! That’s a long time! I can see them both willing to forgive each other. However, as you can see, the chances have dropped after episode 2. Not by too much, but that comment Hall makes about wishing he could take all the single ladies in the house on a date, was uncalled for. Hilarious, yes. But not what Kaitlin needed to hear.

I didn’t lower Kaitlin and Hall’s odds this week. On the contrary, I put them back up at 35%. Hall really seems to want a family, which is not something Kaitlin wants at the moment (or in the near future). However, I have a feeling they will work things out.

Will Vanessa and Roberto break up on Temptation Island?

  • Verdict: Vanessa and Roberto leave together (but are they still a couple?)

Season 5 finale (Aug. 23) update: They may have left the island together, but they didn’t make it a week after the show. As the reunion episode reveals, Vanessa and Roberto break up after a fight over Roberto wanting to call Desiree to explain why he picked Vanessa. At the reunion, Vanessa learns that Roberto lied all this time and did have sex with Desiree (among other things).

Comments from this season:

Episode 10: Yes, even after that explosive cliffhanger, we do think this could go either way. Personally, I hope Vanessa breaks away and doesn’t take Roberto back, but I’m going to trust her judgement.

Episode 9: Ya’ll, I’m so done with these two. Red flags, red flags everywhere. Roberto really had me fooled when he cried and said he finally felt free, but boy were we wrong. It turns out that Roberto still has hope.

Episode 8: I have increased Roberto and Vanessa’s odds by 10%. It appears Roberto is not over Vanessa as I had originally thought. These two are a toxic mess.

Episode 7: Vanessa refuses to see the truth, which is that she is the problem here. Roberto truly does appear happier now that he is not being controlled by Vanessa. Still, keeping it at a 10% just in case Roberto surprises me and begs for Vanessa back.

Episode 6: Next, we have Vanessa and Roberto. And yes, you read that right, I’m giving them a low, low 28% chance of leaving the show as a couple right off the bat! These two were arguing before things even started. There is a 10 year gap between the couple, with Vanessa being the oldest. Vanessa is the one who questions if Roberto is the one for her, sharing that she believes Roberto is immature. From what audiences see in the first episode, though, it’s Vanessa who has some growing up to do.

Episodes 1-5: After episode 2, seeing Roberto break down in tears over being done with Vanessa’s disrespect and being talked over, I had to lower their chances or leaving the show together. You can feel Roberto’s pain and emotions through the screen. Be free, Roberto! Run!

Vanessa is angry-angry after the clip of Roberto featured at the bonfire. We’re talking fuming, which is odd, because it’s not like Vanessa has been an angel. These two need to call it quits and the sooner the better.

Will Marisela and Christopher break up on Temptation Island?

  • Verdict: Marisela and Christopher break up

Season 5 finale (Aug. 23) update: Christopher and Marisela were the first couple to reunite at the bonfire. Marisela left the island by herself, happy and motivated to continue working on putting her needs first. Christopher left the island with Alexius, but am I the only one who thinks Christopher only did this because he didn’t want to leave alone?

At the reunion, we learn that Christopher and Marisela did see each other again. We also get confirmation that Christopher is the worst! Our hearts break for Desiree.

Comments from this season:

Episode 9: Christopher won’t even speak to Marisela, and she doesn’t seem to care at all. Now, I don’t think her current flame on the island is the perfect match for her, but she is not walking out of there with Christopher.

Episode 8: That’s right, still no chance. I really think Marisela is over Christopher.

Episode 7: That’s right, not a chance! I think both Marisela and Christopher have done way too much with the singles in the island to forgive and forget.

Episode 6: Marisela and Christopher are opposites. But the one thing they have in common is their love for each other. What made me give the couple low odds, is the fact that Christopher is ready for kids, while Marisela is ready for a girlfriend — that was unexpected! Sacrifices will need to be made here, and I’m not sure either is willing to budge.

Episodes 1-5: I did give the couple slightly higher odds after watching episode 2. Marisela and Christopher seem to be the least problematic. Yes, Christopher messed up big time by spilling Marisela’s secret, but I think he can recover.

Will Paris and Great break up or make up on Temptation Island?

  • Verdict: Paris and Great break up

Season 5 finale (Aug. 23) update: Paris and Great go their own way after the island. There may have been a few encounters, but they are still not back together. Stay strong, Paris! Great is not the one for you.

Comments from this season:

Episode 9: I believe Paris and Great may just get back together. They are not good for each other, that’s for sure, but they’ll keep going back until one of them matures and is ready to really settle down.

Episode 8: Guys, I can’t with these two. They have both crossed the line, but host Mark Wahlberg points out that there doesn’t seem to be any connection between Paris and Tahjicc or between Great and Nafeesah. Mark asks if this could be because they are both still in love with each other?

Episode 7: Great is a player, and he is showing no signs of wanting to change is ways. As for Paris? I’m disappointed. Both have crossed the line. However, I wouldn’t be too surprised if they wanted to continue being on a toxic relationship with each other.

Episode 6: Last, but certainly not least, there’s Paris and Great aka the serial cheater. I’m calling it what it is! Great has cheated on Paris more than once in their short time together. I hope Paris meets someone who is loyal and everything she deserves. As for Great? He’ll have a good time and that’s about it. After episode 2, my opinions have not changed. I lowered their odds by 5%.

Episode 1-5: Paris! I did not see Paris going this wild on Temptation Island. Color me surprised! That comment she made…Paris knew this was going to be shown to Great, right? Great is already a serial cheater, so I don’t see this changing his ways one bit.

And that’s a wrap on Temptation Island season 5! Stay tune as we’ll be updating fans as soon as we learn more about season 6 on USA network. The episode will stream on Peacock the next day. Check back after watching the episode as we update this post after each episode airs.

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