Survivor 44 week 3 power rankings: Who could go home next?

Claire Rafson from SURVIVOR Season 44. -- Photo: Robert Voets/CBS ©2022 CBS Broadcasting, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Claire Rafson from SURVIVOR Season 44. -- Photo: Robert Voets/CBS ©2022 CBS Broadcasting, Inc. All Rights Reserved. /

Survivor 44 has been absolutely full of drama to start off the season.

Not only have we had medivacs and big blindsides, but the castaways have been working overtime to give us entertaining fake idols that should greatly inform strategy moving forward.

This makes it a bit tougher to get a real idea of who’s at the epicenter of power in each tribe, but I’ll do my best to assess where everyone stands in the power rankings and who could be going home next.

Survivor 44 power rankings

Out) Claire Rafson (Last: 12) – In some respects, it’s tough to blame Claire too much for this vote out. Sure, she sat out of the challenges, but I don’t know if that really hurt her as much as you’d think. It made her an easy vote, but I also just didn’t see her really gelling with anyone. I also think most of the tribe would’ve preferred to go after either Matt or Frannie, but Matt’s “Idol” kept them from making that move.

In many ways, Claire is just yet another victim of these small tribes and the lack of a swap makes it easy for tribes to target women. This is three in a row and it’s becoming enough of a pattern, that production really needs to consider changing things up for season 45.

14) Sarah Wade (Last: 15) – I’m leaving Sarah this low because she’s so clearly on the outs over at Tika. Even if Carson started to get buyer’s remorse with Yam Yam and Carolyn, he can’t really ditch them at this point. If they go to tribal, it’s almost certainly going to be Sarah going home. She needs some kind of twist very soon.

13) Kane Fritzler (Last: 13) – Kane has struggled to get momentum this season and the editors have started to give him more of a comedic edit this week. Now, we’ve seen big characters make a splash in the last few seasons, but I still don’t think that’s a good sign for Kane. He just doesn’t have much going on for him over at Ratu and it’s hard to see that changing anytime soon.

12) Frannie Marin (Last: 10) – Am I underrating Frannie because of her relationship with Matt? Probably, but it does feel like the rest of Soka could easily target her to weaken Matt if they’re too worried about his “Idol.” Obviously, Matt’s Idol is fake and wouldn’t save either of them, but only Danny knows that, and it’s not like he’s going to let anyone know. That probably puts Frannie in the worst position on her tribe, but I’m still hopeful she can work her way out of this.

11) Matt Blankinship (Last: 11) – As mentioned, Matt thinks he has an Idol, but he’ll soon find out that’s far from the truth. How does he play it? If he starts to play with a ton of confidence, thinking he’s untouchable, he could be in trouble. Hopefully, he reigns it in, but then he almost has to rally the troops against Heidi to have a chance. The one boon keeping him from tumbling further down the rankings is that pound-for-pound, Soka is probably the strongest tribe in challenges.

10) Jaime Lynn Ruiz (Last: 14) –  I just roasted Matt (and by proxy Frannie) for having a fake Idol, so you might be wondering why Jaime has actually moved up since she was duped in a similar way by Matthew. Well, here’s the thing Plant Mommy/Daddy, Matthew seems to want to work with Jaime while Danny doesn’t really seem to care. Could this be something that hurts her down the line? Absolutely, but for now, I think Matthew will try to keep her close and bring her with him to the merge.

9) Lauren Harpe (Last: 9) – Now we get into the range of players who haven’t really done much in the last few episodes. I don’t remember seeing Lauren speak since the premiere, so I’ll keep her in the middle of the rankings to be nice. That said, she’s definitely not looking like a major player at this point.

8) Yamil Arocho (Last: 8) – Yam Yam might be entertaining, but has he really done anything (at least as far as we’ve seen)? Outside of making a questionable alliance with Carolyn, not really. He’s fine for now but is definitely not giving winner vibes.

7) Brandon Cottom (Last: 7) –  I was kind of high on Brandon after he used his Idol in the first episode, but since then he hasn’t done too much. As the physically strongest of this trio of mediocrity, I’ll keep him on top, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see his fortunes change quickly.

6) Carolyn Wiger (Last: 6) – Look, I think we’re both surprised to see Carolyn this high two weeks in a row. She’s all over the place, which is great for TV, but bad for strategy. That said, she has an Idol and is in a strong majority in her tribe. She’s probably not going anywhere, in spite of…everything.

5) Heidi Lagares-Greenblatt (Last: 4) – I feel like it’s only a matter of time until Heidi is axed in a surprising vote-out. There’s something that just feels off, but I can’t place my finger on it. That said, I think there are definitely more obvious targets in her tribe and she seems to be in everyone’s good graces. The one concern is if people get too scared about Matt’s fake Idol, but I don’t think that’ll be a problem, which could definitely be my famous last words.

4) Josh Wilder (Last: 2) – Josh keeps dropping for me because he’s just not getting any screen time. On paper, he’s playing very well, but the editors aren’t giving us any reason to root for him. Now, we’ve seen other players–think Erika in season 41–come out of nowhere recently, but Josh doesn’t seem like that type of under-the-radar player. If he doesn’t start to get material soon, he could be in trouble.

3) Carson Garrett (Last: 3) –  While I still don’t really love Carson siding with Carolyn and Yam Yam over Sarah and Helen as a strategic move, you have to give him credit for making himself nearly untouchable at this point. I think that could be a short-term move that doesn’t work out for him, but he should be safe for now.

2) Matthew Grimstead-Mayle (Last: 5) – Matthew getting a fake Idol in Jaime’s hands is a masterful move only topped by one person in this episode. He’s also well insulated from danger on Ratu and can easily steer the tribe however he wants. I’m not sure I can see him winning just yet, but he’s definitely in a great spot after three episodes.

1) Danny Massa (Last: 1) – Danny stays on top after making the best move of the episode all season. Getting a fake Idol into Matt’s hands and then convincing everyone it’s real was incredible. People were going to think Danny had something given how much he’s running around, but now he has rock-solid cover. Plus, his tribe is probably the strongest physically, which could mean he’ll come into the merge with numbers. If anyone is getting the winner’s edit at this point, it’s Danny.

Next. Survivor 44 episode 3: 2 bait & switches for the price of 1. dark