Could a win at the Critics Choice Awards mean a win at the Oscars?

The Critics Choice Awards are Sunday, Jan. 14, and the ceremony is seen as a critical part of the Oscars season. But does a win at this awards show always predict who will win an Oscar? The stats may be surprising!

Created in 1996, the Critics Choice Awards, as the name implies, are held by the American-Canadian Critics Choice Association and meant for critics to choose the best in film and television. They’re notable now for being one of the key barometers for the Oscar season and usually come right after the Golden Globes. 

There have been a few shifts for the ceremony over the years. For example, they were to be held in the first week of January 2022 but the Covid-19 pandemic caused it to be delayed until March. This year, they’re coming more at their regular time and a win here is often seen as a good boost for someone’s Oscar chances.

Now, of course, the ceremony isn’t perfect for predicting the Oscar. For example in 2021, they went one for four in the acting categories. Daniel Kaluuya was the only actor who went on to win an Oscar. Likewise, last year, they picked Cate Blanchett for Best Actress and Angela Bassett for Best Supporting Actress. Michelle Yeoh and Jamie Lee Curtis would win the respective Oscars. 

Still, given the overall track record, a win at the Critics Choice Awards is a good indicator of whose favored to win the Oscar.

How often does the Critics Choice Award and the Oscar line up?

Per Gold Derby, the Critics Choice Awards have ended up predicting 16 Best Picture Oscar winners as well as 23 Best Director, 19 Best Actor, 15 Best Actress, 18 Supporting Actor, and 19 Supporting Actress winners.

That’s a pretty great track record and often, the a win at the ceremony has been a key boost to someone’s Oscar campaign. For example, in 2010, Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock tied for Best Actress, which gave Bullock’s performance in The Blind Side more attention and led to her Best Actress win. 

Not only is the award itself important but a good speech by the winner can boost them with Oscar voters (see Jessica Chastain using her surprise Best Actress win in 2022 to claim the Oscar for The Eyes of Tammy Faye). Yet the award itself shows that if the critics back someone, Oscar voters can follow suit.

While they haven’t gotten Best Picture right as much as they have with other awards, the numbers don’t lie in that winning a Critics Choice award is often vital for someone vying for an Oscar and why this is one of the more critical award shows of the season.

The 29th Annual Critics Choice Awards air Sunday, Jan. 14 at 7/6c on The CW.