Is Black Panther fighting Green Book for Oscar glory?

Will this year’s Oscar race come down to Black Panther vs. Green Book? Or will Roma take the gold?

Just a month ago, I was thinking that A Star is Born was going to dominate the Oscar proceedings. Then, the Academy went ahead and announced the Oscar nominees. There were a couple of surprises, some more welcome than others. Black Panther made the Best Picture cut.

Alfonso Cuaron’s Roma is nominated in 10 categories! Green Book also has proven to be stronger than I thought it was going to be.

I did get some things right. Lady Gaga got the Best Actress nomination I suspected, and Cooper is nominated for Best Actor. A Star is Born is still a strong contender, but Cooper’s lack of directing nomination dims Star’s best picture chances.

What are Black Panther’s chances?

So do I think Black Panther is going to take it? It would be the second-highest earning Best Picture winner ever if it did, but I doubt it. I’ve said before, but actors are the biggest voting bloc of the academy. If, say, Michael B. Jordan was nominated for Best Supporting Actor, I think Panther would have a pretty good chance.

However, he wasn’t. I really don’t understand why he wasn’t. Jordan was great as Killmonger, able to earn empathy while being unapologetically brutal. However, he’s not nominated and neither are any other members of the cast. So like Star Wars, it will be nominated but not win.

BEVERLY HILLS, CA – JANUARY 06: Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy, award for ‘Green Book’ winners (L-R) Viggo Mortensen, Peter Farrelly, Linda Cardellini, and Mahershala Ali pose in the press room during the 76th Annual Golden Globe Awards at The Beverly Hilton Hotel on January 6, 2019 in Beverly Hills, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images) /

Why is Green Book a sudden heavyweight?

I hadn’t heard anything about Green Book until it opened at the Toronto International Film Festival. So I saw the trailer, and…I dismissed it.

Why did I dismiss it? Because Green Book looked and smelled like something the Weinstein’s would have greenlit a few years ago. Sure, both Viggo Mortenson and Masharia Ali are pretty great actors. On the other hand, the Academy has recently been choosing nominees that looked…more bold and daring.

Say what you will about Birdman, and Spotlight, they were better crafted and dug deeper, than, say, The Imitation Game. I’m aware that Green Book was based on a true story (although the real Shirley family feel the move is a pile of lies). Green Book seemed too much like The Imitation Game to be something that had a serious chance.

Yet it’s been building up accolades, slowly and steadily. It got the People’s Choice award at TIFF, which is an award also won by 12 Years A Slave and The King’s Speech. The American Film Institute included it in their top 10 films of the year. The most attention-grabbing harbinger for me is that Green Book got the Producer Guild Award (PGA) for best film. Twenty of the 29 PGA winners have gone on to win Best Picture. The fact that both Mortensen and Ali have nominations means Green Book’s best picture chances are real.

I currently feel like Black Panther is the sixth most likely to win movie out of the eight nominees. Green Book I’d argue is currently third, and Gold Derby would agree with me.

So which film should actually win?

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA – JANUARY 07: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse producers Phil Lord (R) and Chris Miller (R) speak during a Sony press event for CES 2019 at the Las Vegas Convention Center on January 7, 2019 in Las Vegas, Nevada. CES, the world’s largest annual consumer technology trade show, runs from January 8-11 and features about 4,500 exhibitors showing off their latest products and services to more than 180,000 attendees. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images) /

I don’t know yet. Black Panther is the only one of them I’ve actually seen. I thought it was pretty good. The fifth best Marvel Studios movie yet. As I said before, Black Panther making the best film shortlist was a nice surprise.

I’m much more familiar with the animated film category, having seen three of them. Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse was the best, and in my opinion, deserves a best picture nod just as much as Black Panther. I’ve also written before about how much I liked the Incredibles 2, and what other superhero movies can learn from it.

Of the current best picture nominees, I really want to see Roma. My brother said it was pretty great, and he knows my tastes well enough that I trust him. (Also, the trailers had images that dropped my jaw. They were that gorgeous). I was happily surprised that non-professional actress Yalitza Aparicio got a Best Actress nomination. If Roma wins, it will be the first Spanish language film to get Best Picture.

light. Related Story. Oscars: Get to know the 5 Animated Feature nominees

Bohemian Rhapsody is a given to me because I like Queen. I also look forward to seeing A Star is Born, and who knows? Maybe Green Book is a less obvious, less sugar-coated prestige flick then the trailer made it look?

So what do you think FanSiders? Which Oscar nominees have you seen? Which one do you think should win? Sound off in the comments below.

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